I used to like PrizePool a lot, I think that is clear from the extensive review I wrote on PrizePool. But then they started to offer more tickets for referrals and I’m just not a fan of referral based model in general. Referral based model is understandable from a company’s perspective because they can always use more users but I don’t think it helps the end user. Anyway, as a result of that I ended up only leaving about $700 in my primary PrizePool account. But after the recent changes and revelation they have made, I am looking towards adding more money into my PrizePool account.
First, they have split up the prizes so more people are winning. This is obviously both good and bad at the same time. For example, the largest prize you can win now is $10k (down from $25k) but this means more people are winning small bits of prizes. I think what this essentially means is that if you hold small amount of money, you can get high APY on PrizePool. For example, I know an account with balance of $203 (the last data point in the table below) that won only up to 20 cents on weekly basis yet the APY turned out to be 3.97% over a course of 8 months.
Perhaps even more important reason for me moving more money into PrizePool is the fact that we now know exactly what our odds of winning are…and the numbers are far better than I thought they were. Here are some data points for week 4 drawing (which now has the highest prize of 10k):
Note: The numbers you see below prize column ($10k, $500, $100, etc) are the odds of winning the prize.
| Date | Balance | Percentile | $10,000 | $500 | $100 | $20 | $10 | $5 | $2 | $1 | $0.2 | $0.10 |
| 08/15/21 | $5,107 | 92 | 1/4,543 | 1/1,133 | 1/500 | 1/61 | 1/14 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 1/7 | 1/ ? |
| 08/15/21 | $1,139 | 81 | 1/2,0368 | 1/5,076 | 1/2,236 | 1/269 | 1/58 | 1/17 | 1/17 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 1/5 |
| 08/15/21 | $831 | 75 | 1/2,8259 | 1/7,042 | 1/3,102 | 1/373 | 1/10 | 1/23 | 1/14 | 1/8 | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| 08/15/21 | $678 | 73 | 1/3,4291 | 1/8,545 | 1/3,764 | 1/ 452 | 1/97 | 1/28 | 1/17 | 1/10 | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| 08/15/21 | $203 | 55 | 1/113,743 | 1/28,341 | 1/12,480 | 1/1,497 | 1/320 | 1/89 | 1/51 | 1/27 | 1/7 | 1/3 |
Looking at the percentile of the last data point, you can see that anyone with $203 balance has more money than 55% of the users in PrizePool. Alternatively, you can also think of it as only 45% of users have more balance than $203. Similarly, if you have a balance of $5107 then only 8% users in PrizePool have more money than you.
If you signup through a referral, you will get 10% of your ALL of your winning and I will also get 10% as well.
https://links.getprizepool.com/1abMCSL4Ccb or use code Y17LK
Before we look at the data further, here are some data points for week 1-3 drawings:
| Date | Balance | Percentile | $500 | $100 | $20 | $10 | $5 | $2 | $1 | $0.2 | $0.10 |
| 08/15/21 | $5,107 | 92 | 1/4,531 | 1/1,130 | 1/62 | 1/14 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/4 | 1/7 | 1/949 |
| 08/15/21 | $1,139 | 81 | 1/20,368 | 1/5,076 | 1/273 | 1/10 | 1/17 | 1/11 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 1/5 |
| 08/15/21 | $831 | 75 | 1/28,259 | 1/7,042 | 1/379 | 1/82 | 1/23 | 1/14 | 1/8 | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| 08/15/21 | $678 | 73 | 1/34,291 | 1/8,545 | 1/460 | 1/99 | 1/28 | 1/17 | 1/10 | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| 08/15/21 | $203 | 55 | 1/113,743 | 1/28,341 | 1/1,522 | 1/326 | 1/90 | 1/51 | 1/28 | 1/7 | 1/3 |
Because of the way PrizePool is setup, users with high balance have low change of winning $0.10 prize. But you can also see that having a balance of $5107 gives you a 1 in 4,543 odd of winning the big Week 4 prize of $10,000. The same amount also gives you 1 in 4,543 odd of winning weekly prize of $500. Meanwhile, it also gives you a fair odd of 1 in 500 of winning $500 in Week 4’s drawing. This is more or less the primary reason I am looking to move more money into PrizePool.
In the following screenshots, you can see the prize amount and number for week 1-3 (left ) and week 4 (right).
Closing Remarks
The odds of winning are far better than I thought. Remember you also get 0.30 APY on your balance. And don’t forget to to signup through a referral link, otherwise you are leaving free perpetual cash on the table.
